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	<title>Aubry Group, LLC</title>
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	<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond</link>
	<description>Beyond Financial Planning &#38; Evidence-Based Investing for Doctors</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 28 Nov 2011 06:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>2011 Quarter 3 Review</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/10/2011-quarter-3-review/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/10/2011-quarter-3-review/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Oct 2011 03:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1588</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Click here for the 2011 Quarter 3 &#8220;Quarterly Review&#8221;.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011q3-review.pdf" target="_blank">Click here for the 2011 Quarter 3 &#8220;Quarterly Review&#8221;.</a></p>
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		<title>Living with Uncertainty: The Nature of Risk</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/10/living-with-volatility-in-the-new-normal/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/10/living-with-volatility-in-the-new-normal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Oct 2011 03:42:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1584</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is no doubt that the returns from the 3rd quarter of 2011 were downright rotten.  But as we know, long-term investing success is not measured in quarters , but years.  And while not the worst in the last 51 quarters, the most recent quarter saw:

 The 4th worst quarterly stock market return (-15.28%) for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no doubt that the returns from the 3<sup>rd</sup> quarter of 2011 were downright rotten.  But as we know, long-term investing success is not measured in quarters , but years.  And while not the worst in the last 51 quarters, the most recent quarter saw:</p>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> The 4<sup>th</sup> worst quarterly stock market return (-15.28%) for the US Stock market index since the beginning of 1999.</li>
</ul>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> The International Developed stock market index saw its 4<sup>th</sup> worst quarterly performance (-19.01%) since the beginning of 1999.</li>
</ul>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> The Emerging Markets Index had its 3<sup>rd</sup> worst quarterly performance (-22.56%) since 1999.</li>
</ul>
<p>The current renewed volatility in financial markets is reviving unwelcome feelings among many investors-feelings of anxiety, fear, and a sense of powerlessness. These are completely natural responses. Acting on those emotions, though, can end up doing us more harm than good.</p>
<p>At a minimum, the increase in market volatility is an expression of uncertainty. The sovereign debt strains in the US and Europe, together with renewed worries over financial institutions and fears of another recession, are leading market participants to apply a higher discount to risky assets. It is all reminiscent of the events of 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered a global market correction. This time, however, the focus of concern has turned from private-sector to public-sector balance sheets.</p>
<p>As for what happens next, no one knows for sure. <strong><em>That is the nature of risk</em></strong>. But there are a few points individual investors can keep in mind to make living with this volatility more bearable.</p>
<ul>
<li> Markets are unpredictable and do not always react the way the experts predict they will. The recent downgrade by Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s of the US government&#8217;s credit rating, following protracted and painful negotiations on extending its debt ceiling, actually led to a strengthening in Treasury bonds.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Quitting the equity market at a time like this is like running away from a sale. While prices have been discounted to reflect higher risk, that&#8217;s another way of saying expected returns are higher. And while the media headlines proclaim that &#8220;investors are dumping stocks,&#8221; remember this: someone is buying them. For every stock that is sold, there is a buyer on the other end. Those people are often the long-term investors.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Market recoveries can come just as quickly and just as violently as the prior correction. For instance, in March 2009-when market sentiment was last this bad-the S&amp;P 500 turned and put in seven consecutive months of gains totaling almost 80%. This is not to predict that a similarly vertically shaped recovery is in the cards this time, but it is a reminder of the dangers for long-term investors of turning paper losses into real ones. You have already &#8220;paid&#8221; for the risk; why not sit tight, be patient and wait for the recovery?</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Never forget the power of diversification. While equity markets have had a rocky time in 2011, fixed income markets have flourished-making the overall losses to balanced fund investors a little more bearable. Diversification spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the road, even in all-equity portfolios.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Markets and economies are different things. The world economy is forever changing, and new forces are replacing old ones. For example, the IMF noted in its April 2011 World Economic Outlook that while advanced economies seek to repair public and financial balance sheets, emerging market economies are thriving. A globally diversified portfolio takes account of these shifts.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Nothing lasts forever. Just as smart investors temper their enthusiasm in booms, they keep a reserve of optimism during busts. And just as loading up on risk when prices are high can leave you exposed to a correction, dumping risk altogether when prices are low means you can miss the turn when it comes. As always in life, moderation is a good policy.</li>
</ul>
<p>The market volatility is worrisome, no doubt. The feelings being generated are completely understandable. But through discipline, diversification, and understanding how markets work, the ride can be made bearable. At some point, value will re-emerge, risk appetites will re-awaken, and for those who acknowledged their emotions without acting on them, relief will replace anxiety.</p>
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		<title>Mark Aubry Featured</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/mark-aubry-featured/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/mark-aubry-featured/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Sep 2011 21:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a September 29-published article on RIABIZ.com, Mark Aubry is featured as a &#8220;hyper-mobile&#8221; and &#8220;free-wheeling&#8221; advisor.  The article features Mark Aubry and how the new Trust Company of America platform, Liberty, helps our company to be more mobile which allows us to better serve our clients.
To read the article, &#8220;Trust Company of America is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a September 29-published article on RIABIZ.com, Mark Aubry is featured as a &#8220;hyper-mobile&#8221; and &#8220;free-wheeling&#8221; advisor.  The article features Mark Aubry and how the new Trust Company of America platform, Liberty, helps our company to be more mobile which allows us to better serve our clients.</p>
<p>To read the article, <a href="http://www.riabiz.com/a/8700002" target="_blank">&#8220;Trust Company of America is Giving RIAs more weapons for Free-Wheling,&#8221;</a> click on the following link: (<span style="font-family: mceinline;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><a href="http://www.riabiz.com/a/8700002" target="_blank">http://www.riabiz.com/a/8700002</a></strong></span></span>).</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Technology Update - Liberty</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/technology-update-liberty/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/technology-update-liberty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Sep 2011 21:08:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1516</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Technology Update
On October 1, we will be launching a new platform to access your investment account online.  You will still access your account by going through the Aubry Group website (http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/client-access/view-account-online/), but starting October 1 you will notice the change once you click on the Aubry Group logo.
Our custodian, Trust Company of America, is now [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Technology Update</strong></p>
<p>On October 1, we will be launching a new platform to access your investment account online.  You will still access your account by going through the Aubry Group website (<a href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/client-access/view-account-online/"><span style="font-family: mceinline;">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/client-access/view-account-online/</span></a>), but starting October 1 you will notice the change once you click on the Aubry Group logo.</p>
<p>Our custodian, Trust Company of America, is now offering a completely different view into the investor site with a new platform called Liberty.  We are very excited about this new platform because it is leading edge technology in the investment industry.   The platform, named Liberty because of the freedom it offers its users, is fully functional across any computer, web browser, tablet or smart phone.</p>
<p>When you log into the new platform for the first time, use your same username and password.  Upon logging in, you will be asked to confirm your security information.  Once you have cleared security you will find enhanced usability, functionality, performance reporting and mobility. (If you have not logged into your account before, or you have forgotten your username or password, please send me an email and we will get you set up so you can view your account online).</p>
<p>If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.</p>
<p>Look for other technology improvements later this year.  (We plan to have an Aubry Group app in the Apple App Store by the end of the year.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>We&#8217;re Moving</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/were-moving/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/09/were-moving/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Sep 2011 21:02:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1512</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[    

We&#8217;re Moving!
Starting Saturday, October 1, the Aubry Group, LLC will be doing business from a new location.  About a block away from where we have been for the last three years, our new address will be:
Aubry Group, LLC
2401 E. Washington Street
Suite 200 A-2
Bloomington, IL  61704
The increased use of technology coupled with [...]]]></description>
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<p class="MsoNormal">
<p>We&#8217;re Moving!</p>
<p>Starting Saturday, October 1, the Aubry Group, LLC will be doing business from a new location.  About a block away from where we have been for the last three years, our new address will be:</p>
<address>Aubry Group, LLC<br />
2401 E. Washington Street<br />
Suite 200 A-2<br />
Bloomington, IL  61704</address>
<p>The increased use of technology coupled with the opportunity to decrease our fixed costs has allowed for this move.  No matter where the main office is, we look forward to providing service to you, wherever you might be.</p>
<p><!--EndFragment--></p>
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		<title>Follow the Evidence</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/08/follow-the-evidence/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/08/follow-the-evidence/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Aug 2011 07:39:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1497</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[OK, what are we going to do NOW?
The first thing we are NOT going to do is panic.  Two things are driving this drop in the global stock markets: fear and lack of understanding.
Secondly, this post is NOT made out of fear, but concern.  Concern not about the markets, but concern about your fears and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK, what are we going to do <em>NOW?</em></p>
<p>The first thing we are NOT going to do is panic.  Two things are driving this drop in the global stock markets: fear and lack of understanding.</p>
<p>Secondly, this post is NOT made out of fear, but concern.  Concern not about the markets, but concern about your fears and concerns.  A large part of my responsibility as an investment advisor is to reduce cognitive dissonance.  And there is a lot of dissonance out there right now.</p>
<p>Over the last 9 days, the S&amp;P 500 is down 10.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 10.23% and the MSCI World Index is down 9.88%.</p>
<p>When I started writing this post, I anticipated that I would write about why everyone is worried.  And while I know both anecdotally and the microeconomic factors that have caused investors to be very worried, concerned and scared that we are going to experience another 2008, I am going to focus my attention on the evidence and why we are going to continue to let evidence-based investing be our guide.</p>
<p>Here is a reality check: most of us will likely see a market crash similar to what we saw in 2008 again before we die, maybe even two crashes.  They won&#8217;t be exactly the same, but there will continue to be crashes.  There have been economic and stock market &#8220;crashes&#8221; as far back as the 1630s.  Yes, the SIXTEEN-30s . . . <em>that</em> far back.</p>
<p>I am convinced that the market dropped as much as it did because of the doom and gloom presented by the media (as it does with every &#8220;crisis&#8221;).</p>
<p>While it is impossible to know why every investor is worried or concerned, I am quite confident in writing that most of the fears and concerns are misguided and driven by emotion and not by the irrefutable evidence provided by the history of the capital markets.</p>
<p>Yes, governments around the world are in bad shape.  Economies are struggling.  Individuals and their families are strapped in ways that most have never experienced. There are a lot of microeconomic factors out there that we could spend time worrying about, weighing the pros and cons of specific decisions and what needs to be done next to &#8220;fix&#8221; the economy.  But, even though I have very strong opinions on what needs to be done, I can neither control the decision-makers nor can I pretend that any would listen to me, and why should they?  My expertise is not in economic forecasting.  However, my expertise is as an Investment Advisor and Manager (those are two separate roles that I will have to explain more thoroughly some other time).  And besides, I really have little concern for <em>micro</em>economic factors; I am much more concerned with the <em>macro</em>economic aspects of investing, even though everything you hear about with the financial media are microeconomic tidbits that never provide the big picture.</p>
<p>Maybe you have heard me use the analogy of the forest and the trees.  There are really only two ways that investors can think about their investments: are your investments a lot of trees or are your investments a forest?  Here is what I mean:</p>
<p>Think of yourself in large wooded area.  You know that this is <em>your </em>forest, or at least that is how you feel. There are some very large trees, some small trees, shrubs, dead trees, logs, leaves, grass, bugs and animals of all kinds, some of which are there, you&#8217;re convinced, trying to destroy your trees.  Because you are in the midst of the wooded areas, you really don&#8217;t know how large of an area is around you and you spend most of your day trying to count all that is in <em>your</em> forest.  But one day, you realize that a fire is coming.  You quickly realize that you cannot stop the fire.  So, you spend your time trying to save as much of your forest as you can.  You dig ditches, clear trees and brush and you try to do whatever you can to salvage what you have.  You eventually realize that you have only two choices: either destroy a portion of your portfolio, er, um, forest to stop the fire so you can save what&#8217;s left or your whole forest will get burned, and you with it.</p>
<p>Now, imagine yourself standing on a mountain, looking out over a good-sized forest.  You smile as you gaze upon the forest and you know that it is <em>your</em> forest.  You ask yourself why it seems that your forest isn&#8217;t really growing much.  But when someone visits you on your mountain and looks at your forest, the person goes on and on about how much bigger your forest is than it was three years ago when he/she last saw the forest.  One day, you see a fire coming and, just as you feared, it is a very large, powerful and moving quickly toward your forest.  It is pretty clear that there is nothing you can do, other than watch in horror as your forest is destroyed by the fire.  You hang your head in shame and horror and ask yourself what you are going to do.  However, after a period of time, you realize that not only was your forest NOT completely destroyed, but that it is growing back even stronger, more full and more beautiful than you could have ever imagined.</p>
<p>Ok, fine.  Nice story, but where is the evidence?</p>
<p>I know that things don&#8217;t look very good right now and I can understand why you may be thinking that this &#8220;feels eerily like 2008.&#8221;  I remember the pit in my stomach from 2008 and 2009.  I also remember how horrible it felt in 2001 and 2002.  I remember the horrible emerging markets crash in the 1998.  I remember the recession of 1991; I remember the Black Monday crash of 1987 and the horrible inflation and dastardly high interest rates of the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Wow, if you are old enough to remember, how can you forget about all of the financial and economic problems of the mid-1970s?  The feelings, along with the questions, are always the same: Am I going to lose everything this time?  I&#8217;m not sure if I can handle watching my portfolio drop by 30%, 40% or more.</p>
<p>That is why we must put our faith in the evidence.  Ultimately, why do we invest? Because we have faith that what we invest today is going to be worth more 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 years from now.  Faith is the substance of things hoped for, even though they are not yet seen.</p>
<p><strong><em>Here&#8217;s Some Evidence</em></strong></p>
<p>The following are two examples of why we should continue to put our faith in the evidence presented to us.</p>
<p><em>Evidence #1</em></p>
<p>Since early May, the MSCI World Index has now declined 13.18%.  (The S&amp;P 500 has now declined 11.99%, May 2 through August 4.)</p>
<p>The market was due for a correction.  Since March 9, 2009, the bottom of the crash, the MSCI World Index had increased <strong><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">102.19%</span></em></strong>.  If we only look at this data, it seems that from that bottom, the market went straight up until May 2, 2011.  But that is hardly the case.  In fact there was about a 3-month period last year that saw the World Index <em>decrease </em>by 16.75% (April 15, 2010 - July 5, 2010).  This was in the midst of a 102.19% increase!  Then, after that &#8220;crash,&#8221; the Index <em>increased</em> 34.64% from that July 5, 2010 bottom.  (July 5, 2010 - May 2, 2011).</p>
<p><strong><em>Evidence #2</em></strong></p>
<p>From January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2010, the S&amp;P 500 has an annualized return of 9.99%.  That is pretty impressive when you consider all of the ups and downs over the last 40 years.  The economic crisis of 1973-&#8217;74; the stagflation and inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s; the Black Monday crash of 1987; terrorists attacks, several wars, 2 major stock market crashes in the 2000s, several severe recessions and all of the many other negative forces pushing against the stock markets over the last 40 years.</p>
<p>The graph, <a href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/sp-500-19700101-20101231.pdf" target="_blank">Performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index (click here)</a>, shows the growth of $1,000 over the last 40 years.  If an investor had invested $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 Index on January 1, 1970, that investor would have had $49,614 at the end of 2010.  (What if the investor started with $100,000? That investor would have had $4,961,400 at the end of 2010.  That&#8217;s impressive.)</p>
<p>This graph also shows what the returns would have been if an investor had missed <strong><em>the</em></strong> best day in the 40-year period.  It also includes the return had the investor missed the Best 5 days, missed the best 15 days and missed the best 25 days and the returns associated with each.  As you can see, there is a dramatic decrease in returns for missing the top days.</p>
<p>So, missing the single best performing day drops the investor total dollar amount after 40 years by just over $5,000 (or $500,000 if the investor started with $100,000).  What I have always found amazing is that by missing the single best day, the investor misses out on 0.29% per year over 40 years!</p>
<p>Several people have asked me through the years, &#8220;What are the odds that something like this would actually happen, where an investor will miss out on the best day in 40 years or the 5 best days?</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the odds are very good:</p>
<p>1.     The best single day was October 13, <strong><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2008 </span></em></strong>(11.58%)</p>
<p>2.     Nine of the top 25 days occurred between September 2008 and February 2009, during which time the S&amp;P 500 dropped 41%</p>
<p>3.     Five of the top 10 days occurred between October 2008 and November 2008, during which time the S&amp;P 500 dropped 22.8%</p>
<p>4.     The best one-month return, October 1974, happened immediately after the second-worst one-year period</p>
<p>These two examples are a simply a couple of the plethora of different examples that the evidence of the history of the capital markets has presented to us.</p>
<p>What if this is like 2008 again?  What are we going to do?  How do we know our plan is going to work?</p>
<p>Because of the faith that we have in our plan, we are going to:</p>
<p>1.     Invest for the future, not the present</p>
<p>2.     Diversify</p>
<p>3.     Be Patient</p>
<p>To your success!</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What Should We Do Now?</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/08/what-should-we-do-now/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/08/what-should-we-do-now/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 13:09:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/?p=1480</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everyone has loss aversion.  Loss aversion is expecting high returns with little risk and it causes investors to search for investments that do not exist.  This results in either no action being taken or investing in such investments that fail to meet expectations.  Every investor hates to see negative returns; in order to be a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everyone has <em>loss aversion</em>.  Loss aversion is expecting high returns with little risk and it causes investors to search for investments that do not exist.  This results in either no action being taken or investing in such investments that fail to meet expectations.  Every investor hates to see negative returns; in order to be a successful investor, one cannot let loss aversion keep an investor from making good decisions regarding their investment portfolios.</p>
<p>For example, for the typical investor, the experience of losing $100 typically causes more unhappiness than the happiness gained in acquiring $100.</p>
<p>Worse than loss aversion, and especially in times of falling markets, many investors suffer from <em>narrow framing</em>.  Narrow framing is making decisions without considering all of the implications.  When markets are negative or falling, many investors get locked into thinking only about what is going on, <em>at this moment in time</em>.</p>
<p>&#8220;This time feels different.&#8221; Or &#8220;I can&#8217;t handle experiencing another 2008.&#8221; These are phrases that someone suffering from narrow framing deals with.</p>
<p>The problem is that financial science has identified the keys to successful investing.  And similar to healthy living, it takes time, hard work and patience.</p>
<p>Risk and return are forever linked.  That is, returns come from risk that is being taken on by the investor.  When investors start to worry about whether or not it&#8217;s time to &#8220;move to cash,&#8221; it&#8217;s typically too late.  As David Booth, CEO of Dimensional Fund Advisors says, &#8220;You&#8217;ve already taken on the risk; you might as well stick around for the return.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch, so you might as well eat a lot.&#8221; (Kenneth French, PhD, Dartmouth College)  Diversification helps us manage the risks of the ups and downs of the market cycles by lowering portfolio volatility; diversification also adds value by increasing returns.</p>
<p>One of the most important factors to long-term portfolio success is the structure of the portfolio. Research has shown that over 91% of a portfolio&#8217;s returns come from how a portfolio is structured.  (This originally comes from a 1991 study conducted by Brinson, Singer and Beebower.  That research was confirmed in 2000 in a study by Ibbotson and Kaplan.)</p>
<p><em>The Average Investor</em></p>
<p>History shows us that the average investor has not done very well and continues to make the wrong decisions.  Each year, Dalbar, Inc., a research company, issues their Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB).  Among other things, the annual QAIB report shows that the <em>average investor</em> (the average returns of all investors), continues to make poor investment decisions.</p>
<p>As you may know, measuring investment returns is a bit of a moving target.  Returns are always measured against &#8220;the market&#8221;.  While everyone would like to see a 10% return every year with little risk (loss aversion), we all know that it is highly impractical to think this way.   However, &#8220;the market,&#8221; or the S&amp;P 500, has <em>averaged</em> 9.14% each of the last 20 years.  That includes the drop from March 2000 through early 2003 and also includes the 37% drop from October 2007 to March 2009.</p>
<p>What you may find even more surprising is that, according to Dalbar&#8217;s QAIB, the average equity investor averaged 3.83% in the same 20 years that saw the market increase at an average of 9.14%.  The average asset allocation investor, one who invests in both stock and bonds, saw and average return of 2.56% in the same time period.  What&#8217;s worse is that inflation grew at 2.57%!</p>
<p>Here is the rest of the data:</p>
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top"></td>
<td width="45" valign="top">20 yrs</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">10 yrs</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">5 yrs</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">3 yrs</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">1 yr</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">All Equity Investor</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">3.83%</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">1.55%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">0.81%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">-4.21%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">13.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Asset Allocation</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">2.56%</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">1.3%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">0.96%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">-2.27%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">9.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Inflation</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">2.57%</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">2.48%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">2.46%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">1.86%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">1.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">S&amp;P 500</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">9.14%</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">1.41%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">2.29%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">-2.86%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">15.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Int 97</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">n/a</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">13.36%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">8.86%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">0.95%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">20.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Std 97</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">n/a</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">11.52%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">7.02%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">0.86%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">21.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Int 50</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">n/a</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">9.25%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">7.15%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">3.18%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">12.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="64" valign="top">Std 50</td>
<td width="45" valign="top">n/a</td>
<td width="51" valign="top">8.41%</td>
<td width="48" valign="top">6.16%</td>
<td width="50" valign="top">3.02%</td>
<td width="54" valign="top">12.58%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>While the Aubry Group&#8217;s portfolios have not been around for 20 years, the strategies have been around for the last 10 years.  You can see what a very scientific, strategic and long-term approach to investing can do.  (The International 97 and Standard 97 are all-equity portfolios and the International 50 and Standard 50 are a mix of 50% equities and 50% fixed income.)</p>
<p><em>What do we do know?</em></p>
<p>Nothing.  Well, nothing different than what we are already doing.  Our strategy of Evidence-Based Investing is driven by the fundamentals of investing.  While in the short-term our portfolios may not always out-perform the markets, given the track record of our strategy (and our actual portfolios), if we continue to be led by the evidence that the capital markets is providing for us, investors should not make any rash decision during falling markets, especially during times of political theater.</p>
<p>The ups and downs of market cycles are not dependent upon whether or not the US Government increases the debt ceiling or whether or not the US Treasury has a AAA rating or not.  Don&#8217;t get me wrong, it has an effect.  Just not the lasting impact that the financial pornography, uh um, financial media would lead you to believe.</p>
<p>The market has only gained 89% of its pre-financial crisis value.  However, all of the Aubry Group&#8217;s portfolios have gained 100% and more of their pre-crisis values.</p>
<p>The keys to successful, long-term investing never change . . . and they never will.</p>
<p>1.     Have a Plan</p>
<p>2.     Maintain Proper Asset Allocation</p>
<p>3.     Manage your Behavior</p>
<p>This three-step process is the only way to truly be able to achieve your long-term goals.  The only way to weather the financial storms - and then quickly recover and rebuild - is to use Evidence-Based Investing.  When you know that the foundations of your portfolio are built on the irrefutable evidence provided by financial science, it is much easier to manage one&#8217;s behavior.</p>
<p>Investing success is more about <em>time in the market</em> rather than the attempts to time the market.</p>
<p>To your success!</p>
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		<title>&#8220;We&#8217;re Almost Out of Runway&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/07/were-almost-out-of-runway/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/07/were-almost-out-of-runway/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jul 2011 21:31:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Investors around the world are worrying about the politically-driven drama in Washington, DC.  This drama will likely end with a &#8220;deal,&#8221; but will it be enough to allay the fears of a downgrade of US debt?
There are really two issues at the heart of the fear of investors:
1.  Default
2.  Downgrade
Default
These are two separate issues even [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Investors around the world are worrying about the politically-driven drama in Washington, DC.  This drama will likely end with a &#8220;deal,&#8221; but will it be enough to allay the fears of a downgrade of US debt?</p>
<p>There are really two issues at the heart of the fear of investors:</p>
<p>1.  Default</p>
<p>2.  Downgrade</p>
<p><strong><em>Default</em></strong></p>
<p>These are two separate issues even as they are intertwined.  A US government &#8220;default&#8221; is a possible outcome if there is no deal to increase the &#8220;debt limit&#8221; by the August 2<sup>nd</sup> deadline.  A default would mean that the US Government would not be able to make-good on its financial obligations.  We are told that the government would stop paying interest on debts owed.  This is the concern of the investors around the globe, especially those that hold US Treasury securities, which is an extremely high numbers of investors and foreign governments around the world. Allegedly, Social Security checks, paychecks for government employees, checks to pay for the military - both paychecks and operations - would also cease on August 2<sup>nd</sup>, just to list a few.</p>
<p>August 2<sup>nd</sup> is a bit of an artificial deadline.  According to Stone McCarthy, a company that provides rating services put out a chart (<a href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/document3.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>) that shows that the money coming into the US Treasury (deposits from taxes and &#8220;other&#8221; revenues) and the money going out of the treasury (essentially, expenses).  According to Stone McCarthy, the US Government will not run out of money until approximately August 15<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p>(Is this reason to cheer?  Absolutely not.  I&#8217;m just pointing out a small part of the political theater - from both sides of the aisle - that is being played in Washington.)</p>
<p>If the US Government does, in fact, default and cannot pay it debts/liabilities, there is a chance that there could be a jump in interest rates for all Americans, ultimately hurting the fragile (and alleged) economic recovery.  An increase in interest rates would hurt because it would be more difficult for individuals and businesses to get and pay for debt instruments that help people and businesses do the things they need to do.  This includes obtaining and paying for auto loans, mortgages, lines of credit and other tools.</p>
<p><strong><em>Downgrade</em></strong></p>
<p>Very similar to an individual&#8217;s credit report, ratings agencies, such as Moody&#8217;s and Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s, report on the credit worthiness of businesses and countries.  To help investors, these ratings agencies have developed ratings schedules. These schedules are broken down into &#8220;Investment Grade&#8221; (relatively safe investments) and &#8220;Speculative Grade&#8221; (also known as &#8220;High Yield&#8221; or &#8220;Junk&#8221;).  There are several levels of each.</p>
<p>Currently, the United States Government maintains the Aaa rating with Moody&#8217;s and AAA with Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s.  Both are the best ratings given by each company, as both companies consider the debts to be &#8220;the highest quality with the smallest degree of risk.&#8221;</p>
<p>If there is a downgrade by the ratings agencies, it would likely knock the US Government down a notch or two.  This is not the end of the world as the debt would still be considered Investment Grade.  However, it would have potentially far-reaching effects. (<a title="Who owns Treasuries" href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/who-owns-treasuries.pdf" target="_blank">Click here for a graph of who owns US Treasuries</a>.)</p>
<p>1.     		Insurance companies - most insurance companies are required by law to 	old large percentages of their portfolios in very safe and very liquid 	investments.  Since US Treasuries are considered to be the safest 	investment in the world, most insurance companies maintain large 	positions.</p>
<p>2.     		Money Market Funds - typically valued at $1 per share, there is a concern 	that money markets would &#8220;break the buck&#8221; or decrease below a $1 	value.</p>
<p>3.     		Foreign Investors - Investors, both foreign and domestic will have to 	answer this question: Are US Government bonds still the safest and 	most liquid investment on the face of the earth?  For a long time, the 	answer has been yes.  But that continues to be challenged by foreign 	and domestic investors, primarily because of decisions of the politicians 	in Washington, DC.</p>
<p>But where would an investor, looking for safety and liquidity go?  Europe?  Have you been paying attention to the debt issues in the Eurozone?  Most are still worse than the US.  Germany might be the noted exception.</p>
<p>What about Asian debt?  China debt offering is too small and subject to intense capital restrictions and little, if any, accountability to investors.</p>
<p>4.    		 Banks may be downgraded.  Some suspect that one of the reasons why 	very large banks enjoy their current position of relative financial 	strength - the &#8220;too-big-to-fail banks&#8221; anyway - is that there is the 	perception of an implicit guarantee that the US Government would step 	in and save troubled or failing banks (as was the case in 2008 and 	2009).</p>
<p>5.     		A capital crunch for banks - Some analysts believe that a downgrade of 	US debt would force banks to raise hundreds of billions of dollars in new 	capital.</p>
<p>6.     		Collateral crunch - US Treasuries are used to collateralize all sorts of 	obligations: margin requirements, short-term loans and derivatives.</p>
<p>7.     	The Federal Reserve comes to the rescue again!</p>
<p>8.     	There could be a junk bond and stock market sell-off</p>
<p>While these are speculative, there are many more scenarios and variables; these are just some of the most likely scenarios at this time.</p>
<p><strong><em>What if the Debt Ceiling is increased?</em></strong></p>
<p>So, if the debt ceiling is increased, all of the issues go away and everything is fine, right?</p>
<p>Not really.  It will help in the short-term by avoiding any potential defaults, but the longer term is different.</p>
<p>Recently, United States Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that &#8220;we&#8217;re almost out of runway.&#8221;  Even though he was referring to the need for a short-term solutions, the problem is that the runway keeps getting longer because, to stay with Mr. Geithner&#8217;s example, the plane continues to get bigger and heavier which requires a faster and longer approach.</p>
<p>The debt ceiling, which is likely to be raised, is the amount of debt the United States Government is able to take on, according to law.  However, as I pointed out earlier, politicians on both sides of the aisle, including the White House, are trying to use the current &#8220;debt crisis&#8221; to their advantage.</p>
<p>One side claims that increasing the debt ceiling will keep needed government programs in place and maintain the necessary entitlement programs. One of that side&#8217;s leaders has stated the raising the debt ceiling is akin to the Emancipation Proclamation.</p>
<p>The other side is using the &#8220;crisis&#8221; to push their agenda of cutting certain programs and decreasing taxes.  One of the members on this side has actually said that he believes a default would be good for the United States.</p>
<p>This post is not about arguing or discussing the political points being made.  The reality is that the debt ceiling has increase every year since 1980. This <a title="Debt Ceiling" href="http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/us-debt-ceiling.pdf" target="_blank">US Debt Ceiling (click here) chart</a> shows the last 32 years of debt ceiling increases.</p>
<p>Whether the United States Congress and the President agree to raising the debt limit or not, the reality is that there are major obstacles to long-term success, sustainable and real growth and the ability to repay the country&#8217;s debts.  John Chambers, the chairman of Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s sovereign rating committee has recently stated that to cut &#8220;$4 trillion would be a good down payment.&#8221;    Chambers goes on to say,  &#8221;the $4 trillion, depending on whether it&#8217;s front loaded or back loaded, is not going to do the trick in terms of stabilizing the U.S. government debt to GDP ratio.  But it takes you pretty far along.&#8221;</p>
<p>Even if (when) the debt ceiling is increased, according to Standard &amp;Poor&#8217;s in a July 14<sup>th</sup> report, there is still a 50% chance that US debt gets a downgrade in the next three months.</p>
<p>Is the runway ever going to be shortened?</p>
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		<title>Sovereign Debt and the Equity Investor</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/07/sovereign-debt-and-the-equity-investor/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/07/sovereign-debt-and-the-equity-investor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:30:24 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Sovereign Debt and the Equity Investor
Weston Wellington, VP
Dimensional Fund Advisors
Last week we came across an &#8220;Economic and Policy Watch&#8221; update prepared by a major investment bank that reviewed recent government proposals to address the nation&#8217;s funding crisis. Titled &#8220;It Just Gets Worse,&#8221; the report chided policymakers for actions that &#8220;look like a poor cover for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<address><strong>Sovereign Debt and the Equity Investor</strong></address>
<address>Weston Wellington, VP</address>
<address>Dimensional Fund Advisors</address>
<p>Last week we came across an &#8220;Economic and Policy Watch&#8221; update prepared by a major investment bank that reviewed recent government proposals to address the nation&#8217;s funding crisis. Titled &#8220;It Just Gets Worse,&#8221; the report chided policymakers for actions that &#8220;look like a poor cover for loose money, rising inflation, and fiscal problems,&#8221; and warned that &#8220;government financing needs are corrupting monetary policy.&#8221; As a result of these ill-advised tactics, the bank had turned &#8220;more negative&#8221; on the outlook for financial stability and saw &#8220;little hope of improvement in the inflation/currency mix.&#8221;</p>
<p>Amidst the barrage of news coverage from dozens of sources probing the US debt/default/downgrade issue, such a conclusion might seem unremarkable. We found it of interest because the focus of the report was not the US Treasury but the government of Indonesia, and it appeared over a decade ago, on July 16, 2001.</p>
<p>Indonesia&#8217;s sovereign debt rating at that time placed it firmly in the &#8220;junk&#8221; (non-investment grade) category: B3 from Moody&#8217;s and single-B from Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s. Although Moody&#8217;s upgraded Indonesia to a B2 rating in 2003 and to Ba1 in early 2011, at no time over the past decade was Indonesia deemed to merit an investment grade rating.</p>
<p>What has been the experience of equity investors in Indonesia since this report was published? The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 415.09 on January 16, 2001, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished that day at 10,652.66. On Wednesday, the Jakarta Composite closed at 4,087.09 and the Dow at 12,592.80. If the Dow Jones Average had kept pace with Indonesian stocks over the past decade, it would be over 104,000 today.</p>
<p>Investors in Indonesia have had their share of ups and downs over the years, and markets fell even harder than the US during the financial crisis, with a peak-to-trough loss of nearly 60%. But the recovery was sharper as well: The Jakarta Composite recouped all of its losses by April 2010, and the all-time high on July 22 this year was 45% above the high-water mark of early 2008.</p>
<p>For the ten-year period ending June 30, 2011, total return as computed by MSCI was 29% per year in local currency and 33% in US dollar terms. At no point throughout this period did Indonesia have an investment grade rating for its sovereign debt, and outside observers continue to find fault with the country&#8217;s troublesome level of corruption, primitive infrastructure, and unpredictable regulatory apparatus.</p>
<p>We are not suggesting that investors should dismiss the effects of a US government credit downgrade. US Treasury securities are so widely held around the world that any potentially destabilizing event is worrisome. Nor are we suggesting that investors focus solely on countries with low credit ratings. Just as a broadly diversified portfolio includes companies with high and low credit quality, investing in countries with both high and low ratings is equally sensible.</p>
<p>Some might say the strong performance of Indonesian stocks over the past decade was at least partly attributable to the nation&#8217;s improving credit profile, even if it remained at a relatively low level. The US, in contrast, appears to be deteriorating. Our point is that a low credit rating in and of itself is not necessarily a death sentence for equity investors. Citizens of triple-A countries behave much like those living in single-B territory-they eat, drink, shop, get stuck in traffic jams, chatter on mobile phones, and check their Facebook pages. (Indonesia claims the second-largest number of members in the world.) Companies doing business in either location generate cash flows, and investors do their best to evaluate what those cash flows are worth. A triple-A sovereign debt rating is no guarantee of superior equity market returns, and a &#8220;junk&#8221; rating is no assurance of failure. <strong><em>A diversified strategy will have exposure to both.</em></strong> (Emphasis added by Mark J. Aubry.)</p>
<address><!--StartFragment--></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span>Ray Farris, &#8220;It Just Gets Worse,&#8221; ING Barings <em>Economic and Policy Watch</em>, January 16, 2001.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span>&#8220;Global Credit Research,&#8221; <em>Moody&#8217;s Investors Service</em>, March 2004.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span>&#8220;Missing BRIC in the Wall,&#8221; <em>Economist</em>, July 21, 2011.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span>Securities data provided by Bloomberg.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span>Yahoo! Finance, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/"><span>finance.yahoo.com</span></a> (accessed July 25, 2011).</span></p>
<p><!--EndFragment--></p>
</address>
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		<title>Aubry Group Recognition</title>
		<link>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/01/aubry-eustice-recognition/</link>
		<comments>http://aubrygroup.com/beyond/2011/01/aubry-eustice-recognition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jan 2011 22:45:18 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[We are pleased to announce that Mark J. Aubry of Aubry Group,  LLC has been named to Medical Economics&#8217; &#8220;Best Financial Advisors for  Doctors 2010&#8243; list. Medical Economics is a national healthcare  publication and is the leading business resource for physicians.
While it is Mark that is officially recognized with this award, we [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We are pleased to announce that Mark J. Aubry of Aubry Group,  LLC has been named to Medical Economics&#8217; &#8220;Best Financial Advisors for  Doctors 2010&#8243; list. Medical Economics is a national healthcare  publication and is the leading business resource for physicians.</p>
<p>While it is Mark that is officially recognized with this award, we  acknowledge that it is more about our team, and the Beyond Financial  Planning platform, that has put us in this position.</p>
<p>Our clients work hard to be the best at what they do, and we are  proud to be recognized as one of the best in our field. We understand  that physicians have a very demanding career, and that these demands do  not always allow for the most effective management of their resources.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a great honor for us to be named one of the best at what we do.</p>
<p>For more information about the Aubry Group, LLC, please visit our website at <a href="http://aubryeustice.com/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">http://www.aubrygroup.com</span></a>. You can contact us at (877) 857-7500 or <a href="mailto:%20team@aubryeustice.com" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">team@aubrygroup.com</span></a>. To learn more about Medical Economics, visit this site: <a href="http://medicaleconomics.modernmedicine.com/about" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">http://medicaleconomics.modernmedicine.com/about</span></a>.</p>
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